First Fall Stats - Inventory Up, Sales Too, Prices Mixed
The San Francisco real estate market continues to be roiled by the dramatic news events of 2020 - the pandemic, racial equity protests, economic uncertainty and the approaching election. There are plenty of signs of a fairly healthy market, but certainly adjustments are occurring as well. Let's take a look at the overall picture in August & September and see if we can make some sense of it.
For all residential properties, the median sale price was $1,400,000 in September, exactly the same as last year. August was up $50,000.
Single family homes continue to do better than condos/TIC/coops, but they are not wildly up. In September the median single family price was up 9.5% but the actual median price was lower than peak prices in 2019 and 2018.
Condo prices fell 9.1% year over year in September and are lower than the Spring of 2018.
Keep in mind that price figures for September reflect mostly August sales when wildfire smoke impacted the market and the delayed Spring market was mostly finished. Nevertheless, if this trend continues through October and November it is fair to say that prices are softer than at any time in the recent past.
The other important indicators are inventory - the number of active properties on the market - and the number of sales.
Inventory is up 44% over last September and higher, by about 1000 properties, than at any time since 2010 at the tale end of the Big Recession.
Are more sales occurring because there is more to buy? Maybe. Closed sales were up 67.4% in September. But that is probably a reflection of the fact that people did not hold off on purchases until after Labor Day as they do normally. Instead, people continued shopping in August.
The raw number of sales, 534 in September and 452 in August, is more or less normal for San Francisco.
New listings have been trending down since July, however. So it appears that the pent up supply from our locked-down Spring is over and maybe inventory will start to decline as the excess is sold through. Time will tell.
The big question is whether the number of properties on the market will result in price cuts. There is some indication that is already occurring as the percentage of properties selling over list price has fallen consistently since July and the median sale price is now almost the same as median list price - a situation not seen since 2010.
What is happening right now? Certainly condos/TICs/coops are struggling, particularly in the more dense parts of the city. Buyers appear wary of moving ahead and are generally looking for bargains. But they are not finding them, necessarily. Desirable properties are still in high demand, particularly those with outdoor space and a layout that is conducive to working and schooling at home. Every week there are quick off-market and multiple offer overbid sales, even while other properties stay on the market longer, and indeed the median days on market ticked up dramatically in September to 26 days, 53% higher than last year. For sellers, I counsel patience and for buyers I say consider what you want and then be very happy if you can get it for just a little less than last year.
Now more than ever, make sure to obtain the advice of an experienced agent who remains in the market full-time. These general statistics are not applicable to your property or the one you want. You need a tailored analysis to make the right move. I'm always free to talk - call me!
Neighborhood Statistics
As always, our different neighborhoods are reacting differently to the shifting market. Various forces are at work - desire for more space and quiet, retreat to "safe" neighborhoods and work strategies. Some of the statistics below are fairly predictable but some a surprise.
In general, the denser, more condo-heavy neighborhoods have soaring inventory. District 6 (Lower PacHts, NOPA, Hayes Valley) is up 100%, while District 8 (Nob Hill, Russian Hill, Civic Center) and District 9 (SOMA, Mission, Bernal) are up over 90%.
Perhaps as a result, the single-family neighborhoods are generally doing better on price. District 1 (Richmond) and 2 (Sunset) are up 6.6 and 3.9% respectively. But not District 3, which had the steepest price drop, down 7.5%. And classic "safe" but apartment-filled District 8 is doing well, up 5.2%. Maybe that's because of all the renters finally making the jump to buy?
The next biggest loser on price? District 5 (Castro, Noe, Haight) which is down 5.5% and now more than $500,000 less than District 7 (PacHts, Marina) which gained 1.3% and has a median price almost $2.5 million. There are a lot of apartments in District 5 and its price run-up more recent. But it's hard to believe that the long-term shift in value away from the establishment favorites could turn around so completely in a few months.
What to make of all this? First of all, it's very important to look at specific houses and neighborhoods. Even these district statistics obscure what is going on in each of our micro-neighborhoods - Folsom and 4th is nothing like Folsom & 14th is nothing like Folsom & 20th, but they are all in District 9. And a snapshot like this can be skewed by a few sales. We will take a look once the Fall season is over in December for evidence of long term trends.
More statistics on my website: www.danslaughtersf.com. (Note that the statistics cited above are rolling 3-month averages to account for the relatively small number of sales in a particular district per month.)
TWO NEW LISTINGS!
I have two modern listings for sale right now; both offer great work-at-home layouts, really useful outdoor space, and new renovations.
First, 1694 York St, a 2815 square foot 4 bedroom 3.5 bath modern home in Bernal Heights. It has a primary suite and two other generous bedrooms on the first floor, an open main floor built for entertainment with open chef's kitchen, big island, defined big formal living room and even bigger family/dining room with sliding glass doors opening to a sunny private back yard. Upstairs is another primary suite together with separate office/gym room that flows out to massive view deck. www.1694YorkSt.com
Second, 555 Natoma St #2 is a two-level townhouse style condominium in SOMA. The first floor is a big open room with bar area, renovated kitchen with island and breakfast bar and giant living/dining room that flows out to a private patio perfect for lounging or taking a call. Upstairs are two separate bedroom suite, one with 2 separate rooms making a perfect office set-up. Complete with parking and storage, it's priced great at $1,095,000 for 1260 square feet. www.555Natoma2.com
I'm always happy to show you my listings, or find you something else if these don't work. And I'm always COVID-compliant.