PRICES UP AGAIN AS SUMMER LULL SETS IN
San Francisco's residential real estate market so far this year is up up up. Single family homes are way above previous records. Condos have performed less impressively, still not recovered to the last high in 2019, but the pronounced slump in prices last Fall has been erased. Perhaps the bigger story is the number of transactions - dramatically higher than any previous year. As we enter the summer doldrums, with perhaps even more people than usual on vacation and not shopping, everyone anticipates a flood of new inventory in the Fall.
For all residential properties in the city, the median sale price was at $1,550,000 in June and $1,500,000 in July. That June number is a record and July is tied (with June 2020) for a record high. By this measure, the market has certainly recovered from the pandemic dip.
Single family home prices are stratospheric, 15% higher than last year and 18% higher than 2019. June's median was over $2,000,000.
Condo/TIC/coop prices have recovered somewhat from last year, but are still about $50,000 less than the previous high in the Fall of 2019. Will our 2021 Fall market finally see a new level?
2-4 unit buildings seem to have recovered and then some. Median price is up $200,000 over last year and $100,000 over 2019. All the other metrics track that story with quicker sales and at a higher per square foot price.
The number of sales is way up - increasing about 200 units/month as compared to 2019. This level of moving around may be attributable to pent up interest left over from 2020, but increasingly is looking like the norm.
Inventory (number of active listings) is now just slightly higher than 2019 and way way down from 2020's Fall boom. Single family homes remain scarcer than normal, which is no doubt fueling the drive in prices.
Where do we go from here? As a very general statement, it seems clear that the market is mostly back to normal except that the condo market (especially in denser areas) is still working through the disruption of the pandemic. The rise of the delta variant and new COVID-19 concerns, along with inflation fears including higher interest rates, could possibly derail the upward swing. But never forget the fundamentals of our constrained and uniquely beautiful geographical setting, desirable culture and politically-driven inability to meet housing demand. San Francisco, it seems, just cannot be taken down, at least not for long.
As always, you need an experienced, involved agent to address your particular situation. Preparation for sale is crucial - buyers expect perfection for the high prices. And those buyers need solid advice to navigate the strategically complex bidding process. I'm always happy to discuss real estate with you or a friend you refer. Call me!
Neighborhood Statistics
Almost all the districts in San Francisco showed price improvement in the first half of the year, but there were certainly a few standouts and a few losers.
District 2 (Sunset) has soared to reliably the same value as its traditionally more desirable northern neighbor District 1 (Richmond). The Sunset saw price increases over 20% year over year and stood at a median price of $1,785,000 in July.
Other "suburban" districts - District 4 (West of Twin Peaks) and District 3 (Stonestown, Ingleside, Lake Merced) also shot up in the first half of this year with District 4 up almost 27% over last year to a median price over $2 million and District 3 now in the top half of the city (when it used to be next to last).
Where were the losers? Density may be the culprit, as District 8 (North Beash, Russian/Nob Hill) and District 9 (SOMA, Mission, Bernal) were actually down from last year by 10 and 4 percent. Indeed, the median price in District 8 fell to $150,000 less than District 10 (Bayview, Portola, Excelsior) for the first time in June. Single family houses are winning!
A note of caution, however. We are still in a disrupted market, especially for condos and especially in the areas of the city most affected by the pandemic. Many think that bargains are still to be had - such as in the now lowly District 8 and 9 - and that profits will be made as we return to "normal" over the coming year. Time will tell. More statistics on my website: www.danslaughtersf.com. (Note that the statistics cited above are rolling 3-month averages to account for the relatively small number of sales in a particular district per month.)
SUMMER VACATION
August (together with July) is the traditional American month of the long summer vacation. After the events of 2020, it seems that people are relishing those relaxing times near the beach, new friends, new sites, new feelings. And relaxation.
I took a trip to the East Coast in July and it was glorious. To be away from the home I spent so much time in last year was a little scary at first, but also thrilling and ultimately a great mind cleanse. I heartily endorse any sort of getaway you can have, even if it's only for a day trip to Carmel or the Russian River. We will see everyone in September for the Fall season!