SPRING MARKET RECAP - PRICES UP, INVENTORY DOWN (GENERALLY)
Despite the headline above, the Spring market was complicated. We hit some new record prices and inventory fell from last year's big numbers. But some parts of the market are still not fully recovered despite frenetic activity. Let's take a look.
The price divergence between single family homes and condos that began during the pandemic continues unabated. Inventory levels are now more or less "normal" but much lower in the single family category. Overall I would characterize the Spring market as a reassertion of our standard dynamic after 2020's extreme events, but with some parts of the city still working through the 2020 disruption.
For all residential properties in the city, median sale price hit $1,415,000 in May, slightly higher than last year (or May 2018 or 2019) but still below the highest price ever in June 2020. This metric has risen steadily since February.
Single family home prices soared 20% over last May to $1.9 million, $100,000 higher than the previous record (in April) and almost $150,000 higher than previous peaks in 2018 and 2019.
Condo/TIC/coop prices were up over last year, but "only" by 12% and still $100,000 less than the record high in September 2019 - $100/square foot less.
Inventory (number of active listings) is much lower than last Fall, but still elevated by about 250 units as compared to 2019. This is all in apartments though. Single family availability is at it's lowest of any Spring since 2017; condos/TICs are still up over a "normal" Spring, but wildly reduced from the Fall when there were 1200 "extra" units).
What about forward-looking statistics? Higher inventory (supply) puts downward pressure on prices - but ONLY if the number of sales (demand) holds steady
New Listings: New listings in May were way up over last year (in the middle of the pandemic) but are only about 300 properties higher than May 2019. So more sellers are coming to market, but not a huge number more.
Pending Sales: Pending sales - those recently in contract were WAY up in May - 550 more properties sold than in May 2019. So that looks like demand is still outstripping supply and putting upward pressure on prices.
Overbids: We have returned, somewhat, to the standard practice of buyers bidding above the asking price. This May almost 60% of properties were sold that way. That is still down 5% from May 2019, but the Spring trend has been up up up indicating acceleration in prices.
Of course, even this last set of statistics is a month old. In the last few weeks it looked like new actives were running about even or even lower than sales, but last week the trend reversed with a lot of new inventory. Anecdotally, there is fatigue among buyers (who have been losing out repeatedly, especially those seeking single family homes) and agents (who have handled the high volume of sales). With increased travel as compared to last year and reopening of social life that takes time away from house hunting, many believe we are in for a "typical" slow Summer of sales. We will see, as nothing has been going as it "should" since March 2020.
What's the takeaway? If you are looking for a single family home in one of the traditionally nice neighborhoods, expect lots of competition for the few available properties. Condos and TICs are much more plentiful downtown and even in the neighborhoods, easier to obtain.
Thinking of selling? Your single family home has never been more valuable, and most predict the uptick in sales and prices in condos to continue as long as interest rates stay low.
As always, you need an experienced, involved agent to address your particular situation. Preparation for sale is crucial as buyers are pickier now that they see their home as a refuge. Knowing the market is important for buyers too, including properties coming soon or recently sold. I'm always happy to discuss real estate with you or a friend you refer. Call me!
Neighborhood Statistics
Some interesting statistics from the neighborhoods this month, espcially if you look at the difference between single family homes and condos/TICs. And pay attention to the northside, where different districts are behaving very differently.
District 1 (Richmond) and 2 (Sunset) converged with essentially the same median price of $1,670,000. This represents a big jump (14.8% over last May) for the Sunset which usually lags behind its northern neighbor across the Park.
But the divergence persists for single family homes with District 1 almost $750,000 higher than District 2. Perhaps this is a reversal of the pandemic trend away from the "established" northside as people fled to Marin and beyond.
District 7 (Marina, PacHt) statistics support this view. That area was up overall by 13.2% from last year but single family houses hit an amazing $5,350,000 median price (which is not a record).
But condo heavy District 8, also on the northside (Nob/Russian Hill, Civic Center, Downtown) sank 3.8% with house prices sinking more than 25%.
Condos were also down in condo-heavy District 9 (SOMA, Mission, Bernal, Potrero) where prices were down from last May 6.6% but houses up slightly.
Similarly, condo-heavy District 6 (Lower PacHts, NOPA, Hayes Valley) was down 9.7% overall, but the few single family houses sold there advanced 53.3% to $3,462,000, higher than anywhere except District 7 (but, again, not a record).
Districts 5 (Haight, Castro, Noe Valley), 4 (West of Twin Peaks) and 10 (Bayview, Portola, Excelsior) all held steady with single-digit increases from last year and no serious divergence between single-family homes and condos.
My reading of neighborhood statistics is that we are still working through the disruption from last year and we will have to wait several more months to discern any real trends. More statistics on my website: www.danslaughtersf.com. (Note that the statistics cited above are rolling 3-month averages to account for the relatively small number of sales in a particular district per month.)
PRIDE
What is Pride? It's the opposite of shame, contradicting the notion that it is shameful to love the person you choose or to express your natural self. The June celebrations commemorate the uprising at the Stonewall Bar in New York City in 1969 when patrons fought back against a police raid and helped to birth the modern LGBTQ+ rights movement. Of course, there were other events prior to and after that, including the Compton's Cafeteria riot here in San Francisco in 1966.
This year, there will be no huge parade or large scale festival but many smaller events are planned. And maybe taking a break from the bigger celebration (as we did last year) will encourage us all to think about how we can engage year-round to advocate for and support LGBTQ+ people and the rights of all of us to live and love as we like. You can do that in big and small ways - by joining or leading an organization, but also just by setting an example in your everyday interactions.
Let's roll it into July 4 and beyond. After all, Pride is all about freedom, that quintessentially American of concepts enshrined in the nation's founding documents. So, let's make every day (Gay) Freedom Day in San Francisco and throughout the world!